La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 9)

Celta Vigo vs Osasuna

Thursday 27 Aug, 18:30
Full time
1–2
chances 0.11 – 1.90 xG
✗ missed — we picked CEL; the OSA win we priced at 24%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 9 assessments
48 · 28 · 24CEL · draw · OSA
1–0
Likeliest CEL win · 13%
CELTA VIGO 48%DRAW 28%OSASUNA 24%

Expected goals: CEL 1.50 · OSA 1.02

Goals
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
CEL or draw76%
Draw or OSA52%
CEL or OSAno draw72%
Draw no bet
CELstake returned on a draw67%
OSA34%
Clean sheets
CEL clean sheet36%
OSA clean sheet22%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
CEL↓ OSA→012345
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1–2 · 6.0%
A OSA win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 6 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 16 meetings since 2016/17
CEL 64 drawn6 OSA
2025/26Celta Vigo1–2Osasuna2026-02-06
2025/26Osasuna2–3Celta Vigo2025-10-26
2024/25Celta Vigo1–0Osasuna2025-02-21
2024/25Osasuna3–2Celta Vigo2024-09-01
2023/24Osasuna0–3Celta Vigo2024-02-04

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.