La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 13)

Celta Vigo vs Málaga

Sunday 13 Sept, 13:00
Full time
1–1
chances 1.48 – 0.55 xG
✗ missed — we picked CEL; the draw we priced at 29%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 13 assessments
58 · 29 · 13CEL · draw · MAL
1–0
Likeliest CEL win · 19%
CELTA VIGO 58%DRAW 29%MÁLAGA 13%

Expected goals: CEL 1.46 · MAL 0.62

Goals
Over 1.5 goals60%
Over 2.5 goals35%
Over 3.5 goals17%
Both teams score37%
Double chance
CEL or draw87%
Draw or MAL42%
CEL or MALno draw71%
Draw no bet
CELstake returned on a draw81%
MAL19%
Clean sheets
CEL clean sheet54%
MAL clean sheet23%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
CEL↓ MAL→012345
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1–1 · 11.2%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 11 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
CEL 31 drawn4 MAL
2017/18Celta Vigo0–0Málaga2018-03-18
2017/18Málaga2–1Celta Vigo2017-10-29
2016/17Málaga3–0Celta Vigo2017-05-07
2016/17Celta Vigo3–1Málaga2017-01-08
2015/16Celta Vigo1–0Málaga2016-05-08

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.