La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Celta Vigo vs Málaga
Sunday 13 Sept, 15:00
67 · 23 · 10CEL · draw · MAL
1–0
Likeliest CEL win · 18%
CELTA VIGO 67%DRAW 23%MÁLAGA 10%
Expected goals: CEL 1.77 · MAL 0.58
Goals
Over 1.5 goals66%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Over 3.5 goals22%
Both teams score38%
Double chance
CEL or draw90%
Draw or MAL33%
CEL or MALno draw77%
Draw no bet
CELstake returned on a draw87%
MAL13%
Clean sheets
CEL clean sheet56%
MAL clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| CEL↓ MAL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are CEL goals, columns MAL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
CEL 31 drawn4 MAL
2017/18Celta Vigo0–0Málaga2018-03-18
2017/18Málaga2–1Celta Vigo2017-10-29
2016/17Málaga3–0Celta Vigo2017-05-07
2016/17Celta Vigo3–1Málaga2017-01-08
2015/16Celta Vigo1–0Málaga2016-05-08
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.