La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 12)

Celta Vigo vs Athletic

Sunday 30 Aug, 19:30
Full time
0–2
chances 1.20 – 3.13 xG
✗ missed — we picked CEL; the ATH win we priced at 28%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 12 assessments
45 · 28 · 28CEL · draw · ATH
1–0
Likeliest CEL win · 12%
CELTA VIGO 45%DRAW 28%ATHLETIC 28%

Expected goals: CEL 1.45 · ATH 1.10

Goals
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams score52%
Double chance
CEL or draw73%
Draw or ATH55%
CEL or ATHno draw72%
Draw no bet
CELstake returned on a draw62%
ATH38%
Clean sheets
CEL clean sheet33%
ATH clean sheet24%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
CEL↓ ATH→012345
0
1
2
3
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0–2 · 4.1%
A ATH win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 4 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
CEL 75 drawn12 ATH
2025/26Athletic1–1Celta Vigo2026-05-17
2025/26Celta Vigo2–0Athletic2025-12-14
2024/25Celta Vigo1–2Athletic2025-01-19
2024/25Athletic3–1Celta Vigo2024-09-22
2023/24Celta Vigo2–1Athletic2024-05-15

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.