La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Celta Vigo vs Alavés
Sunday 18 Oct, 15:15
40 · 30 · 30CEL · draw · ALA
1–0
Likeliest CEL win · 11%
CELTA VIGO 40%DRAW 30%ALAVÉS 30%
Expected goals: CEL 1.32 · ALA 1.11
Goals
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
CEL or draw70%
Draw or ALA60%
CEL or ALAno draw70%
Draw no bet
CELstake returned on a draw57%
ALA43%
Clean sheets
CEL clean sheet33%
ALA clean sheet27%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| CEL↓ ALA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are CEL goals, columns ALA. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 18 meetings since 2016/17
CEL 93 drawn6 ALA
2025/26Celta Vigo3–4Alavés2026-03-22
2025/26Alavés0–1Celta Vigo2025-11-22
2024/25Alavés1–1Celta Vigo2025-01-27
2024/25Celta Vigo2–1Alavés2024-08-16
2023/24Alavés3–0Celta Vigo2024-04-27
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.