La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Barcelona vs Real Madrid
Sunday 25 Oct, 20:00
60 · 20 · 20BAR · draw · RMA
2–1
Likeliest BAR win · 9%
BARCELONA 60%DRAW 20%REAL MADRID 20%
Expected goals: BAR 2.50 · RMA 1.46
Goals
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals75%
Over 3.5 goals55%
Both teams score71%
Double chance
BAR or draw80%
Draw or RMA40%
BAR or RMAno draw80%
Draw no bet
BARstake returned on a draw75%
RMA25%
Clean sheets
BAR clean sheet23%
RMA clean sheet8%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BAR↓ RMA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BAR goals, columns RMA. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
BAR 113 drawn10 RMA
2025/26Barcelona2–0Real Madrid2026-05-10
2025/26Real Madrid2–1Barcelona2025-10-26
2024/25Barcelona4–3Real Madrid2025-05-11
2024/25Real Madrid0–4Barcelona2024-10-26
2023/24Real Madrid3–2Barcelona2024-04-21
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.