La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 11)
Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano
Monday 31 Aug, 20:30
Full time
5–2
chances 2.96 – 1.07 xG
✓ called — we picked BAR; the BAR win we priced at 80%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 11 assessments
80 · 12 · 8BAR · draw · RAY
2–0
Likeliest BAR win · 9%
BARCELONA 80%DRAW 12%RAYO VALLECANO 8%
Expected goals: BAR 3.02 · RAY 0.94
Goals
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals75%
Over 3.5 goals55%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
BAR or draw92%
Draw or RAY20%
BAR or RAYno draw88%
Draw no bet
BARstake returned on a draw91%
RAY9%
Clean sheets
BAR clean sheet39%
RAY clean sheet5%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BAR↓ RAY→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
5–2 · 1.9%
A BAR win. 7 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 16 meetings since 2014/15
BAR 103 drawn3 RAY
2025/26Barcelona1–0Rayo Vallecano2026-03-22
2025/26Rayo Vallecano1–1Barcelona2025-08-31
2024/25Barcelona1–0Rayo Vallecano2025-02-17
2024/25Rayo Vallecano1–2Barcelona2024-08-27
2023/24Barcelona3–0Rayo Vallecano2024-05-19
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.