La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 14)
Barcelona vs Racing
Wednesday 16 Sept, 19:30
Full time
7–2
chances 7.48 – 1.38 xG
✓ called — we picked BAR; the BAR win we priced at 82%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 14 assessments
82 · 11 · 7BAR · draw · RAC
3–1
Likeliest BAR win · 8%
BARCELONA 82%DRAW 11%RACING 7%
Expected goals: BAR 3.42 · RAC 1.05
Goals
Over 1.5 goals93%
Over 2.5 goals81%
Over 3.5 goals64%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
BAR or draw93%
Draw or RAC18%
BAR or RACno draw89%
Draw no bet
BARstake returned on a draw92%
RAC8%
Clean sheets
BAR clean sheet35%
RAC clean sheet3%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BAR↓ RAC→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BAR goals, columns RAC. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.