La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Barcelona vs Getafe
Sunday 11 Oct, 15:00
86 · 11 · 4BAR · draw · GET
2–0
Likeliest BAR win · 13%
BARCELONA 86%DRAW 11%GETAFE 4%
Expected goals: BAR 2.94 · GET 0.58
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Over 3.5 goals46%
Both teams score42%
Double chance
BAR or draw96%
Draw or GET14%
BAR or GETno draw89%
Draw no bet
BARstake returned on a draw96%
GET4%
Clean sheets
BAR clean sheet56%
GET clean sheet5%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BAR↓ GET→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
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| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BAR goals, columns GET. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
BAR 156 drawn1 GET
2025/26Getafe0–2Barcelona2026-04-25
2025/26Barcelona3–0Getafe2025-09-21
2024/25Getafe1–1Barcelona2025-01-18
2024/25Barcelona1–0Getafe2024-09-25
2023/24Barcelona4–0Getafe2024-02-24
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.