La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal

Sunday 23 Aug, 15:00

Full time

2–2

chances 0.74 – 3.54 xG

✗ missed — we picked ATM; the draw we priced at 22%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

50 · 22 · 27ATM · draw · VIL

ATLÉTICO MADRID 50%DRAW 22%VILLARREAL 27%

Expected goals: ATM 2.01 · VIL 1.46

Goals

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams score67%

Double chance

ATM or draw73%

Draw or VIL50%

ATM or VILno draw78%

Draw no bet

ATMstake returned on a draw65%

VIL35%

Clean sheets

ATM clean sheet23%

VIL clean sheet13%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.