La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 14)

Atlético vs Real Madrid

Sunday 20 Sept, 14:15
Full time
2–1
chances 2.41 – 0.42 xG
✗ missed — we picked RMA; the ATM win we priced at 34%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 14 assessments
34 · 24 · 43ATM · draw · RMA
1–2
Likeliest RMA win · 9%
ATLÉTICO 34%DRAW 24%REAL MADRID 43%

Expected goals: ATM 1.60 · RMA 1.81

Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
ATM or draw57%
Draw or RMA66%
ATM or RMAno draw76%
Draw no bet
ATMstake returned on a draw44%
RMA56%
Clean sheets
ATM clean sheet16%
RMA clean sheet20%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
ATM↓ RMA→012345
0
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2–1 · 7.5%
A ATM win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 8 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
ATM 611 drawn7 RMA
2025/26Real Madrid3–2Atlético2026-03-22
2025/26Atlético5–2Real Madrid2025-09-27
2024/25Real Madrid1–1Atlético2025-02-08
2024/25Atlético1–1Real Madrid2024-09-29
2023/24Real Madrid1–1Atlético2024-02-04

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.