La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 13)

Atlético vs Osasuna

Wednesday 16 Sept, 17:00
Full time
4–0
chances 5.14 – 0.72 xG
✓ called — we picked ATM; the ATM win we priced at 55%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 13 assessments
55 · 24 · 21ATM · draw · OSA
1–0
Likeliest ATM win · 10%
ATLÉTICO 55%DRAW 24%OSASUNA 21%

Expected goals: ATM 1.85 · OSA 1.09

Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Both teams score57%
Double chance
ATM or draw79%
Draw or OSA45%
ATM or OSAno draw76%
Draw no bet
ATMstake returned on a draw73%
OSA28%
Clean sheets
ATM clean sheet34%
OSA clean sheet16%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
ATM↓ OSA→012345
0
1
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4–0 · 2.1%
A ATM win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 16 meetings since 2016/17
ATM 140 drawn2 OSA
2025/26Osasuna1–2Atlético2026-05-12
2025/26Atlético1–0Osasuna2025-10-18
2024/25Osasuna2–0Atlético2025-05-15
2024/25Atlético1–0Osasuna2025-01-12
2023/24Atlético1–4Osasuna2024-05-19

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.