La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries

Atlético Madrid vs Málaga

Wednesday 19 Aug, 19:00

Full time

2–0

chances 1.34 – 0.23 xG

72 · 16 · 11ATM · draw · MAL

ATLÉTICO MADRID 72%DRAW 16%MÁLAGA 11%

Expected goals: ATM 2.39 · MAL 0.82

Goals

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams score51%

Double chance

ATM or draw89%

Draw or MAL28%

ATM or MALno draw84%

Draw no bet

ATMstake returned on a draw87%

MAL13%

Clean sheets

ATM clean sheet44%

MAL clean sheet9%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.