La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)
Atlético vs Deportivo
Saturday 24 Oct, 20:00
68 · 19 · 13ATM · draw · DEP
2–1
Likeliest ATM win · 10%
ATLÉTICO 68%DRAW 19%DEPORTIVO 13%
Expected goals: ATM 2.39 · DEP 1.02
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
ATM or draw87%
Draw or DEP32%
ATM or DEPno draw81%
Draw no bet
ATMstake returned on a draw84%
DEP16%
Clean sheets
ATM clean sheet36%
DEP clean sheet9%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ATM↓ DEP→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are ATM goals, columns DEP. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 8 meetings since 2014/15
ATM 62 drawn0 DEP
2017/18Atlético1–0Deportivo2018-04-01
2017/18Deportivo0–1Atlético2017-11-04
2016/17Deportivo1–1Atlético2017-03-02
2016/17Atlético1–0Deportivo2016-09-25
2015/16Atlético3–0Deportivo2016-03-12
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.