La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Athletic Club vs Sevilla

Saturday 22 Aug, 15:00

Full time

1–3

chances 1.46 – 0.97 xG

✗ missed — we picked ATH; the SEV win we priced at 17%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

58 · 25 · 17ATH · draw · SEV

ATHLETIC CLUB 58%DRAW 25%SEVILLA 17%

Expected goals: ATH 1.68 · SEV 0.84

Goals

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams score47%

Double chance

ATH or draw83%

Draw or SEV42%

ATH or SEVno draw75%

Draw no bet

ATHstake returned on a draw77%

SEV23%

Clean sheets

ATH clean sheet43%

SEV clean sheet19%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.