La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)
Athletic vs Getafe
Sunday 25 Oct, 13:00
58 · 30 · 12ATH · draw · GET
1–0
Likeliest ATH win · 19%
ATHLETIC 58%DRAW 30%GETAFE 12%
Expected goals: ATH 1.46 · GET 0.59
Goals
Over 1.5 goals59%
Over 2.5 goals34%
Over 3.5 goals16%
Both teams score36%
Double chance
ATH or draw88%
Draw or GET42%
ATH or GETno draw70%
Draw no bet
ATHstake returned on a draw83%
GET17%
Clean sheets
ATH clean sheet56%
GET clean sheet23%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ATH↓ GET→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are ATH goals, columns GET. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
ATH 711 drawn4 GET
2025/26Getafe2–0Athletic2026-04-05
2025/26Athletic0–1Getafe2025-10-25
2024/25Getafe0–2Athletic2025-05-15
2024/25Athletic1–1Getafe2024-08-15
2023/24Getafe0–2Athletic2024-05-03
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.