La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 12)
Athletic vs Elche
Saturday 12 Sept, 16:30
Full time
1–1
chances 3.13 – 0.82 xG
✗ missed — we picked ATH; the draw we priced at 22%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 12 assessments
61 · 22 · 17ATH · draw · ELC
1–0
Likeliest ATH win · 10%
ATHLETIC 61%DRAW 22%ELCHE 17%
Expected goals: ATH 2.03 · ELC 1.03
Goals
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
ATH or draw83%
Draw or ELC39%
ATH or ELCno draw78%
Draw no bet
ATHstake returned on a draw78%
ELC22%
Clean sheets
ATH clean sheet36%
ELC clean sheet13%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ATH↓ ELC→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–1 · 9.8%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 10 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 10 meetings since 2014/15
ATH 52 drawn3 ELC
2025/26Athletic2–1Elche2026-02-20
2025/26Elche0–0Athletic2025-10-19
2022/23Athletic0–1Elche2023-05-28
2022/23Elche1–4Athletic2022-09-11
2021/22Athletic2–1Elche2022-04-03
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.