La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 10)
Athletic vs Atlético
Saturday 5 Sept, 14:15
44 · 25 · 31ATH · draw · ATM
2–1
Likeliest ATH win · 9%
ATHLETIC 44%DRAW 25%ATLÉTICO 31%
Expected goals: ATH 1.62 · ATM 1.34
Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
ATH or draw69%
Draw or ATM56%
ATH or ATMno draw75%
Draw no bet
ATHstake returned on a draw59%
ATM41%
Clean sheets
ATH clean sheet26%
ATM clean sheet20%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ATH↓ ATM→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are ATH goals, columns ATM. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
ATH 54 drawn15 ATM
2025/26Atlético3–2Athletic2026-04-25
2025/26Athletic1–0Atlético2025-12-06
2024/25Atlético1–0Athletic2025-03-01
2024/25Athletic0–1Atlético2024-08-31
2023/24Atlético3–1Athletic2024-04-27
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.