La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 11)
Athletic vs Alavés
Saturday 19 Sept, 14:15
Full time
0–0
chances 1.46 – 0.05 xG
✗ missed — we picked ATH; the draw we priced at 27%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 11 assessments
49 · 27 · 24ATH · draw · ALA
1–0
Likeliest ATH win · 12%
ATHLETIC 49%DRAW 27%ALAVÉS 24%
Expected goals: ATH 1.55 · ALA 1.05
Goals
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score52%
Double chance
ATH or draw76%
Draw or ALA51%
ATH or ALAno draw73%
Draw no bet
ATHstake returned on a draw67%
ALA33%
Clean sheets
ATH clean sheet35%
ALA clean sheet21%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ATH↓ ALA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–0 · 8.6%
A draw. 0 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 9 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 18 meetings since 2016/17
ATH 76 drawn5 ALA
2025/26Alavés2–4Athletic2026-05-02
2025/26Athletic0–1Alavés2025-09-13
2024/25Athletic1–0Alavés2025-05-11
2024/25Alavés1–1Athletic2024-12-15
2023/24Athletic2–0Alavés2024-03-16
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.