La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 9)

Alavés vs Villarreal

Friday 28 Aug, 19:30
Full time
1–0
chances 0.92 – 1.45 xG
✓ called — we picked ALA; the ALA win we priced at 40%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 9 assessments
40 · 25 · 35ALA · draw · VIL
2–1
Likeliest ALA win · 9%
ALAVÉS 40%DRAW 25%VILLARREAL 35%

Expected goals: ALA 1.60 · VIL 1.48

Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
ALA or draw65%
Draw or VIL60%
ALA or VILno draw75%
Draw no bet
ALAstake returned on a draw54%
VIL46%
Clean sheets
ALA clean sheet23%
VIL clean sheet20%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
ALA↓ VIL→012345
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1–0 · 7.9%
A ALA win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 8 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 18 meetings since 2016/17
ALA 83 drawn7 VIL
2025/26Alavés1–1Villarreal2026-03-13
2025/26Villarreal3–1Alavés2026-01-10
2024/25Alavés1–0Villarreal2025-03-08
2024/25Villarreal3–0Alavés2024-11-09
2023/24Alavés1–1Villarreal2024-02-10

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.