La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 14)
Alavés vs Valencia
Tuesday 15 Sept, 18:00
Full time
0–1
chances 1.31 – 0.84 xG
✗ missed — we picked ALA; the VAL win we priced at 18%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 14 assessments
56 · 26 · 19ALA · draw · VAL
1–0
Likeliest ALA win · 12%
ALAVÉS 56%DRAW 26%VALENCIA 19%
Expected goals: ALA 1.72 · VAL 0.94
Goals
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
ALA or draw82%
Draw or VAL44%
ALA or VALno draw74%
Draw no bet
ALAstake returned on a draw75%
VAL25%
Clean sheets
ALA clean sheet39%
VAL clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ALA↓ VAL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–1 · 6.1%
A VAL win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 6 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 18 meetings since 2016/17
ALA 65 drawn7 VAL
2025/26Valencia3–2Alavés2026-03-08
2025/26Alavés0–0Valencia2025-10-20
2024/25Alavés1–0Valencia2025-05-14
2024/25Valencia2–2Alavés2024-12-22
2023/24Valencia0–1Alavés2024-05-05
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.