La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 12)

Alavés vs Osasuna

Sunday 6 Sept, 17:30
Full time
5–2
chances 1.60 – 1.64 xG
✓ called — we picked ALA; the ALA win we priced at 47%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 12 assessments
47 · 28 · 25ALA · draw · OSA
1–0
Likeliest ALA win · 13%
ALAVÉS 47%DRAW 28%OSASUNA 25%

Expected goals: ALA 1.46 · OSA 1.02

Goals
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score50%
Double chance
ALA or draw75%
Draw or OSA53%
ALA or OSAno draw72%
Draw no bet
ALAstake returned on a draw65%
OSA35%
Clean sheets
ALA clean sheet36%
OSA clean sheet23%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
ALA↓ OSA→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
5–2 · 0.3%
A ALA win. 7 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly less than 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 14 meetings since 2016/17
ALA 14 drawn9 OSA
2025/26Alavés2–2Osasuna2026-04-05
2025/26Osasuna3–0Alavés2025-12-20
2024/25Alavés1–1Osasuna2025-05-24
2024/25Osasuna2–2Alavés2024-12-08
2023/24Osasuna1–0Alavés2024-03-04

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.