La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 7)
Alavés vs Osasuna
Sunday 6 Sept, 16:30
47 · 28 · 25ALA · draw · OSA
1–0
Likeliest ALA win · 13%
ALAVÉS 47%DRAW 28%OSASUNA 25%
Expected goals: ALA 1.46 · OSA 1.01
Goals
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score50%
Double chance
ALA or draw75%
Draw or OSA53%
ALA or OSAno draw72%
Draw no bet
ALAstake returned on a draw66%
OSA34%
Clean sheets
ALA clean sheet36%
OSA clean sheet23%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ALA↓ OSA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are ALA goals, columns OSA. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 14 meetings since 2016/17
ALA 14 drawn9 OSA
2025/26Alavés2–2Osasuna2026-04-05
2025/26Osasuna3–0Alavés2025-12-20
2024/25Alavés1–1Osasuna2025-05-24
2024/25Osasuna2–2Alavés2024-12-08
2023/24Osasuna1–0Alavés2024-03-04
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.