La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)
Alavés vs Málaga
Friday 23 Oct, 20:00
70 · 22 · 8ALA · draw · MAL
1–0
Likeliest ALA win · 17%
ALAVÉS 70%DRAW 22%MÁLAGA 8%
Expected goals: ALA 1.88 · MAL 0.55
Goals
Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score38%
Double chance
ALA or draw92%
Draw or MAL30%
ALA or MALno draw78%
Draw no bet
ALAstake returned on a draw90%
MAL10%
Clean sheets
ALA clean sheet58%
MAL clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ALA↓ MAL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are ALA goals, columns MAL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 4 meetings since 2016/17
ALA 31 drawn0 MAL
2017/18Málaga0–3Alavés2018-05-06
2017/18Alavés1–0Málaga2017-12-21
2016/17Málaga1–2Alavés2017-03-11
2016/17Alavés1–1Málaga2016-10-16
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.