La Liga · engine xGB Core v2 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Alavés vs Atlético
Sunday 11 Oct, 15:00
36 · 28 · 36ALA · draw · ATM
0–1
Likeliest ATM win · 9%
ALAVÉS 36%DRAW 28%ATLÉTICO 36%
Expected goals: ALA 1.40 · ATM 1.40
Goals
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
ALA or draw64%
Draw or ATM64%
ALA or ATMno draw73%
Draw no bet
ALAstake returned on a draw50%
ATM50%
Clean sheets
ALA clean sheet25%
ATM clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| ALA↓ ATM→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are ALA goals, columns ATM. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 18 meetings since 2016/17
ALA 25 drawn11 ATM
2025/26Atlético1–0Alavés2026-01-18
2025/26Alavés1–1Atlético2025-08-30
2024/25Alavés0–0Atlético2025-05-03
2024/25Atlético2–1Alavés2024-11-23
2023/24Alavés2–0Atlético2024-04-21
Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.