Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
Saturday 5 Sept, 14:30
Full time
3–1
chances 0.85 – 1.58 xG
✗ missed — we picked RBL; the WER win we priced at 28%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
28 · 24 · 48WER · draw · RBL
1–2
Likeliest RBL win · 9%
WERDER BREMEN 28%DRAW 24%RB LEIPZIG 48%
Expected goals: WER 1.39 · RBL 1.87
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Both teams score64%
Double chance
WER or draw52%
Draw or RBL72%
WER or RBLno draw76%
Draw no bet
WERstake returned on a draw37%
RBL63%
Clean sheets
WER clean sheet15%
RBL clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| WER↓ RBL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
3–1 · 3.2%
A WER win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 3 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 18 meetings since 2016/17
WER 24 drawn12 RBL
2025/26Werder Bremen1–2RB Leipzig2026-04-04
2025/26RB Leipzig2–0Werder Bremen2025-11-23
2024/25Werder Bremen0–0RB Leipzig2025-05-10
2024/25RB Leipzig4–2Werder Bremen2025-01-12
2023/24RB Leipzig1–1Werder Bremen2024-05-11
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.