Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Werder Bremen vs Paderborn
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:30
52 · 29 · 19WER · draw · PAD
1–0
Likeliest WER win · 15%
WERDER BREMEN 52%DRAW 29%PADERBORN 19%
Expected goals: WER 1.41 · PAD 0.74
Goals
Over 1.5 goals64%
Over 2.5 goals36%
Over 3.5 goals17%
Both teams score40%
Double chance
WER or draw81%
Draw or PAD48%
WER or PADno draw71%
Draw no bet
WERstake returned on a draw74%
PAD27%
Clean sheets
WER clean sheet48%
PAD clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| WER↓ PAD→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are WER goals, columns PAD. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 4 meetings since 2014/15
WER 21 drawn1 PAD
2019/20Paderborn1–5Werder Bremen2020-06-13
2019/20Werder Bremen0–1Paderborn2019-12-08
2014/15Paderborn2–2Werder Bremen2015-04-26
2014/15Werder Bremen4–0Paderborn2014-11-29
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.