Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim
Saturday 31 Oct, 14:30
39 · 25 · 37WER · draw · HOF
2–1
Likeliest WER win · 8%
WERDER BREMEN 39%DRAW 25%HOFFENHEIM 37%
Expected goals: WER 1.61 · HOF 1.58
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Over 3.5 goals40%
Both teams score64%
Double chance
WER or draw63%
Draw or HOF62%
WER or HOFno draw76%
Draw no bet
WERstake returned on a draw51%
HOF49%
Clean sheets
WER clean sheet21%
HOF clean sheet20%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| WER↓ HOF→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
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| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are WER goals, columns HOF. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
WER 56 drawn11 HOF
2025/26Hoffenheim1–0Werder Bremen2026-05-09
2025/26Werder Bremen0–2Hoffenheim2026-01-27
2024/25Werder Bremen1–3Hoffenheim2025-02-16
2024/25Hoffenheim3–4Werder Bremen2024-09-29
2023/24Hoffenheim2–1Werder Bremen2024-03-03
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.