Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 9)
Werder Bremen vs Augsburg
Saturday 19 Sept, 13:30
Full time
3–2
chances 2.30 – 0.74 xG
✓ called — we picked WER; the WER win we priced at 41%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 9 assessments
41 · 27 · 33WER · draw · AUG
2–1
Likeliest WER win · 9%
WERDER BREMEN 41%DRAW 27%AUGSBURG 33%
Expected goals: WER 1.55 · AUG 1.36
Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
WER or draw68%
Draw or AUG59%
WER or AUGno draw74%
Draw no bet
WERstake returned on a draw56%
AUG44%
Clean sheets
WER clean sheet26%
AUG clean sheet21%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| WER↓ AUG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
3–2 · 3.1%
A WER win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 3 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
WER 92 drawn11 AUG
2025/26Werder Bremen1–3Augsburg2026-05-02
2025/26Augsburg0–0Werder Bremen2025-12-20
2024/25Werder Bremen0–2Augsburg2025-01-19
2024/25Augsburg2–2Werder Bremen2024-08-24
2023/24Augsburg0–3Werder Bremen2024-04-27
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.