Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
VfB Stuttgart vs Köln
Friday 4 Sept, 19:30
Full time
4–1
chances 3.52 – 2.86 xG
✓ called — we picked VFB; the VFB win we priced at 64%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
64 · 19 · 17VFB · draw · KOE
2–1
Likeliest VFB win · 9%
VFB STUTTGART 64%DRAW 19%KÖLN 17%
Expected goals: VFB 2.54 · KOE 1.29
Goals
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals74%
Over 3.5 goals53%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
VFB or draw83%
Draw or KOE36%
VFB or KOEno draw81%
Draw no bet
VFBstake returned on a draw79%
KOE21%
Clean sheets
VFB clean sheet28%
KOE clean sheet8%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| VFB↓ KOE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
4–1 · 4.9%
A VFB win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 5 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 16 meetings since 2014/15
VFB 94 drawn3 KOE
2025/26VfB Stuttgart3–1Köln2026-02-14
2025/26Köln1–2VfB Stuttgart2025-09-28
2023/24VfB Stuttgart1–1Köln2024-02-24
2023/24Köln0–2VfB Stuttgart2023-09-30
2022/23VfB Stuttgart3–0Köln2023-02-18
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.