Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
VfB Stuttgart vs Gladbach
Friday 23 Oct, 19:30
66 · 18 · 16VFB · draw · BMG
2–1
Likeliest VFB win · 9%
VFB STUTTGART 66%DRAW 18%GLADBACH 16%
Expected goals: VFB 2.60 · BMG 1.24
Goals
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals74%
Over 3.5 goals53%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
VFB or draw84%
Draw or BMG34%
VFB or BMGno draw82%
Draw no bet
VFBstake returned on a draw81%
BMG19%
Clean sheets
VFB clean sheet29%
BMG clean sheet7%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| VFB↓ BMG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
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| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are VFB goals, columns BMG. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
VFB 93 drawn8 BMG
2025/26Gladbach0–3VfB Stuttgart2026-01-25
2025/26VfB Stuttgart1–0Gladbach2025-08-30
2024/25VfB Stuttgart1–2Gladbach2025-02-01
2024/25Gladbach1–3VfB Stuttgart2024-09-14
2023/24VfB Stuttgart4–0Gladbach2024-05-18
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.