Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 7)
VfB Stuttgart vs Dortmund
Saturday 19 Sept, 16:30
Full time
0–1
chances 0.67 – 2.11 xG
✗ missed — we picked VFB; the BVB win we priced at 37%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 7 assessments
40 · 23 · 37VFB · draw · BVB
2–1
Likeliest VFB win · 8%
VFB STUTTGART 40%DRAW 23%DORTMUND 37%
Expected goals: VFB 1.85 · BVB 1.77
Goals
Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Over 3.5 goals49%
Both teams score71%
Double chance
VFB or draw63%
Draw or BVB60%
VFB or BVBno draw77%
Draw no bet
VFBstake returned on a draw52%
BVB48%
Clean sheets
VFB clean sheet17%
BVB clean sheet16%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| VFB↓ BVB→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–1 · 4.0%
A BVB win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 4 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
VFB 63 drawn11 BVB
2025/26VfB Stuttgart0–2Dortmund2026-04-04
2025/26Dortmund3–3VfB Stuttgart2025-11-22
2024/25Dortmund1–2VfB Stuttgart2025-02-08
2024/25VfB Stuttgart5–1Dortmund2024-09-22
2023/24Dortmund0–1VfB Stuttgart2024-04-06
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.