Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 7)
Union Berlin vs Schalke 04
Friday 11 Sept, 19:30
Full time
1–3
chances 1.92 – 3.22 xG
✗ missed — we picked UNI; the SCH win we priced at 14%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 7 assessments
64 · 22 · 14UNI · draw · SCH
2–0
Likeliest UNI win · 12%
UNION BERLIN 64%DRAW 22%SCHALKE 04 14%
Expected goals: UNI 2.01 · SCH 0.83
Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Both teams score50%
Double chance
UNI or draw86%
Draw or SCH36%
UNI or SCHno draw78%
Draw no bet
UNIstake returned on a draw82%
SCH18%
Clean sheets
UNI clean sheet44%
SCH clean sheet13%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| UNI↓ SCH→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–3 · 1.1%
A SCH win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2019/20
UNI 14 drawn1 SCH
2022/23Union Berlin0–0Schalke 042023-02-19
2022/23Schalke 041–6Union Berlin2022-08-27
2020/21Union Berlin0–0Schalke 042021-02-13
2020/21Schalke 041–1Union Berlin2020-10-18
2019/20Union Berlin1–1Schalke 042020-06-07
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.