Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Union Berlin vs Schalke 04
Friday 11 Sept, 18:30
76 · 14 · 10UNI · draw · SCH
3–1
Likeliest UNI win · 8%
UNION BERLIN 76%DRAW 14%SCHALKE 04 10%
Expected goals: UNI 3.00 · SCH 1.08
Goals
Over 1.5 goals92%
Over 2.5 goals77%
Over 3.5 goals58%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
UNI or draw90%
Draw or SCH24%
UNI or SCHno draw86%
Draw no bet
UNIstake returned on a draw88%
SCH12%
Clean sheets
UNI clean sheet34%
SCH clean sheet5%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| UNI↓ SCH→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are UNI goals, columns SCH. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2019/20
UNI 14 drawn1 SCH
2022/23Union Berlin0–0Schalke 042023-02-19
2022/23Schalke 041–6Union Berlin2022-08-27
2020/21Union Berlin0–0Schalke 042021-02-13
2020/21Schalke 041–1Union Berlin2020-10-18
2019/20Union Berlin1–1Schalke 042020-06-07
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.