Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Union Berlin vs Köln
Sunday 1 Nov, 14:30
42 · 26 · 33UNI · draw · KOE
2–1
Likeliest UNI win · 9%
UNION BERLIN 42%DRAW 26%KÖLN 33%
Expected goals: UNI 1.57 · KOE 1.36
Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
UNI or draw68%
Draw or KOE58%
UNI or KOEno draw74%
Draw no bet
UNIstake returned on a draw56%
KOE44%
Clean sheets
UNI clean sheet26%
KOE clean sheet21%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| UNI↓ KOE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are UNI goals, columns KOE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 12 meetings since 2019/20
UNI 83 drawn1 KOE
2025/26Union Berlin2–2Köln2026-05-02
2025/26Köln0–1Union Berlin2025-12-20
2023/24Köln3–2Union Berlin2024-05-11
2023/24Union Berlin2–0Köln2023-12-20
2022/23Union Berlin0–0Köln2023-03-04
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.