Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Union Berlin vs Elversberg
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:30
39 · 24 · 37UNI · draw · ELV
2–1
Likeliest UNI win · 8%
UNION BERLIN 39%DRAW 24%ELVERSBERG 37%
Expected goals: UNI 1.74 · ELV 1.71
Goals
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Both teams score68%
Double chance
UNI or draw63%
Draw or ELV61%
UNI or ELVno draw76%
Draw no bet
UNIstake returned on a draw51%
ELV49%
Clean sheets
UNI clean sheet18%
ELV clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| UNI↓ ELV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are UNI goals, columns ELV. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.