Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday 29 Aug, 13:30
Full time
3–3
chances 2.28 – 2.12 xG
✗ missed — we picked UNI; the draw we priced at 26%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
38 · 26 · 36UNI · draw · EIN
2–1
Likeliest UNI win · 9%
UNION BERLIN 38%DRAW 26%EINTRACHT FRANKFURT 36%
Expected goals: UNI 1.47 · EIN 1.42
Goals
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
UNI or draw64%
Draw or EIN62%
UNI or EINno draw74%
Draw no bet
UNIstake returned on a draw51%
EIN49%
Clean sheets
UNI clean sheet24%
EIN clean sheet23%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| UNI↓ EIN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
3–3 · 1.4%
A draw. 6 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 14 meetings since 2019/20
UNI 54 drawn5 EIN
2025/26Union Berlin1–1Eintracht Frankfurt2026-02-06
2025/26Eintracht Frankfurt3–4Union Berlin2025-09-21
2024/25Eintracht Frankfurt1–2Union Berlin2025-03-09
2024/25Union Berlin1–1Eintracht Frankfurt2024-10-27
2023/24Eintracht Frankfurt0–0Union Berlin2024-03-30
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.