Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Union Berlin vs Dortmund
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:30
21 · 24 · 55UNI · draw · BVB
1–2
Likeliest BVB win · 10%
UNION BERLIN 21%DRAW 24%DORTMUND 55%
Expected goals: UNI 1.11 · BVB 1.91
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
UNI or draw45%
Draw or BVB79%
UNI or BVBno draw76%
Draw no bet
UNIstake returned on a draw28%
BVB72%
Clean sheets
UNI clean sheet15%
BVB clean sheet33%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| UNI↓ BVB→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are UNI goals, columns BVB. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 14 meetings since 2019/20
UNI 40 drawn10 BVB
2025/26Union Berlin0–3Dortmund2026-01-24
2025/26Dortmund3–0Union Berlin2025-08-31
2024/25Dortmund6–0Union Berlin2025-02-22
2024/25Union Berlin2–1Dortmund2024-10-05
2023/24Union Berlin0–2Dortmund2024-03-02
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.