Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
Saturday 31 Oct, 14:30
22 · 23 · 55SCH · draw · RBL
1–2
Likeliest RBL win · 10%
SCHALKE 04 22%DRAW 23%RB LEIPZIG 55%
Expected goals: SCH 1.13 · RBL 1.90
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
SCH or draw45%
Draw or RBL78%
SCH or RBLno draw77%
Draw no bet
SCHstake returned on a draw28%
RBL72%
Clean sheets
SCH clean sheet15%
RBL clean sheet32%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| SCH↓ RBL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are SCH goals, columns RBL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 12 meetings since 2016/17
SCH 22 drawn8 RBL
2022/23RB Leipzig4–2Schalke 042023-05-27
2022/23Schalke 041–6RB Leipzig2023-01-24
2020/21Schalke 040–3RB Leipzig2021-02-06
2020/21RB Leipzig4–0Schalke 042020-10-03
2019/20Schalke 040–5RB Leipzig2020-02-22
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.