Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05
Saturday 17 Oct, 13:30
32 · 25 · 44SCH · draw · MAI
1–2
Likeliest MAI win · 9%
SCHALKE 04 32%DRAW 25%MAINZ 05 44%
Expected goals: SCH 1.48 · MAI 1.77
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Both teams score65%
Double chance
SCH or draw56%
Draw or MAI68%
SCH or MAIno draw75%
Draw no bet
SCHstake returned on a draw42%
MAI58%
Clean sheets
SCH clean sheet17%
MAI clean sheet23%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| SCH↓ MAI→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are SCH goals, columns MAI. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 16 meetings since 2014/15
SCH 103 drawn3 MAI
2022/23Mainz 052–3Schalke 042023-05-05
2022/23Schalke 041–0Mainz 052022-11-09
2020/21Schalke 040–0Mainz 052021-03-05
2020/21Mainz 052–2Schalke 042020-11-07
2019/20Mainz 050–0Schalke 042020-02-16
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.