Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 8)
Schalke 04 vs Elversberg
Sunday 20 Sept, 15:30
Full time
0–0
chances 1.27 – 0.80 xG
✗ missed — we picked ELV; the draw we priced at 19%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 8 assessments
36 · 19 · 45SCH · draw · ELV
2–3
Likeliest ELV win · 6%
SCHALKE 04 36%DRAW 19%ELVERSBERG 45%
Expected goals: SCH 2.41 · ELV 2.67
Goals
Over 1.5 goals97%
Over 2.5 goals88%
Over 3.5 goals75%
Both teams score85%
Double chance
SCH or draw55%
Draw or ELV64%
SCH or ELVno draw81%
Draw no bet
SCHstake returned on a draw44%
ELV56%
Clean sheets
SCH clean sheet7%
ELV clean sheet9%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| SCH↓ ELV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–0 · 0.9%
A draw. 0 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.