Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)
Schalke 04 vs Bayern
Saturday 5 Sept, 17:30
Full time
0–0
chances 0.25 – 2.05 xG
✗ missed — we picked FCB; the draw we priced at 4%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 2 assessments
2 · 4 · 94SCH · draw · FCB
1–5
Likeliest FCB win · 7%
SCHALKE 04 2%DRAW 4%BAYERN 94%
Expected goals: SCH 1.06 · FCB 5.21
Goals
Over 1.5 goals99%
Over 2.5 goals95%
Over 3.5 goals87%
Both teams score65%
Double chance
SCH or draw6%
Draw or FCB98%
SCH or FCBno draw96%
Draw no bet
SCHstake returned on a draw2%
FCB98%
Clean sheets
SCH clean sheet1%
FCB clean sheet35%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| SCH↓ FCB→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–0 · 0.3%
A draw. 0 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly less than 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 16 meetings since 2014/15
SCH 03 drawn13 FCB
2022/23Bayern6–0Schalke 042023-05-13
2022/23Schalke 040–2Bayern2022-11-12
2020/21Schalke 040–4Bayern2021-01-24
2020/21Bayern8–0Schalke 042020-09-18
2019/20Bayern5–0Schalke 042020-01-25
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.