Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
Sunday 13 Sept, 13:30
67 · 19 · 14RBL · draw · HAM
2–1
Likeliest RBL win · 10%
RB LEIPZIG 67%DRAW 19%HAMBURGER SV 14%
Expected goals: RBL 2.45 · HAM 1.06
Goals
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Over 3.5 goals47%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
RBL or draw86%
Draw or HAM33%
RBL or HAMno draw82%
Draw no bet
RBLstake returned on a draw83%
HAM17%
Clean sheets
RBL clean sheet35%
HAM clean sheet9%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RBL↓ HAM→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are RBL goals, columns HAM. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2016/17
RBL 41 drawn1 HAM
2025/26Hamburger SV1–2RB Leipzig2026-03-01
2025/26RB Leipzig2–1Hamburger SV2025-10-18
2017/18RB Leipzig1–1Hamburger SV2018-01-27
2017/18Hamburger SV0–2RB Leipzig2017-09-08
2016/17RB Leipzig0–3Hamburger SV2017-02-11
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.