Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
Sunday 13 Sept, 14:30
Full time
5–0
chances 2.47 – 0.51 xG
✓ called — we picked RBL; the RBL win we priced at 70%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
70 · 18 · 12RBL · draw · HAM
2–1
Likeliest RBL win · 9%
RB LEIPZIG 70%DRAW 18%HAMBURGER SV 12%
Expected goals: RBL 2.55 · HAM 1.01
Goals
Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Over 3.5 goals48%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
RBL or draw88%
Draw or HAM30%
RBL or HAMno draw82%
Draw no bet
RBLstake returned on a draw85%
HAM15%
Clean sheets
RBL clean sheet37%
HAM clean sheet8%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RBL↓ HAM→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
5–0 · 2.6%
A RBL win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 3 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 6 meetings since 2016/17
RBL 41 drawn1 HAM
2025/26Hamburger SV1–2RB Leipzig2026-03-01
2025/26RB Leipzig2–1Hamburger SV2025-10-18
2017/18RB Leipzig1–1Hamburger SV2018-01-27
2017/18Hamburger SV0–2RB Leipzig2017-09-08
2016/17RB Leipzig0–3Hamburger SV2017-02-11
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.