Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
RB Leipzig vs Elversberg
Saturday 24 Oct, 14:30
67 · 18 · 15RBL · draw · ELV
2–1
Likeliest RBL win · 9%
RB LEIPZIG 67%DRAW 18%ELVERSBERG 15%
Expected goals: RBL 2.62 · ELV 1.20
Goals
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Over 3.5 goals53%
Both teams score65%
Double chance
RBL or draw85%
Draw or ELV33%
RBL or ELVno draw82%
Draw no bet
RBLstake returned on a draw82%
ELV18%
Clean sheets
RBL clean sheet30%
ELV clean sheet7%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RBL↓ ELV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are RBL goals, columns ELV. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.