Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited
RB Leipzig vs Gladbach
Saturday 29 Aug, 13:30
Full time
3–0
chances 3.76 – 1.23 xG
✓ called — we picked RBL; the RBL win we priced at 62%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
62 · 20 · 18RBL · draw · BMG
2–1
Likeliest RBL win · 10%
RB LEIPZIG 62%DRAW 20%GLADBACH 18%
Expected goals: RBL 2.29 · BMG 1.19
Goals
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Over 3.5 goals46%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
RBL or draw82%
Draw or BMG39%
RBL or BMGno draw80%
Draw no bet
RBLstake returned on a draw77%
BMG23%
Clean sheets
RBL clean sheet30%
BMG clean sheet10%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| RBL↓ BMG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
3–0 · 6.2%
A RBL win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 6 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 20 meetings since 2016/17
RBL 115 drawn4 BMG
2025/26RB Leipzig1–0Gladbach2026-04-11
2025/26Gladbach0–0RB Leipzig2025-11-28
2024/25Gladbach1–0RB Leipzig2025-03-29
2024/25RB Leipzig0–0Gladbach2024-11-09
2023/24RB Leipzig2–0Gladbach2024-02-17
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.