Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:30
19 · 26 · 55PAD · draw · VFB
0–1
Likeliest VFB win · 12%
PADERBORN 19%DRAW 26%VFB STUTTGART 55%
Expected goals: PAD 0.91 · VFB 1.69
Goals
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams score50%
Double chance
PAD or draw45%
Draw or VFB81%
PAD or VFBno draw74%
Draw no bet
PADstake returned on a draw26%
VFB74%
Clean sheets
PAD clean sheet19%
VFB clean sheet40%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| PAD↓ VFB→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are PAD goals, columns VFB. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 2 meetings since 2014/15
PAD 01 drawn1 VFB
2014/15Paderborn1–2VfB Stuttgart2015-05-23
2014/15VfB Stuttgart0–0Paderborn2014-12-20
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.