Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)
Paderborn vs Hoffenheim
Sunday 20 Sept, 17:30
Full time
3–1
chances 1.34 – 1.67 xG
✗ missed — we picked HOF; the PAD win we priced at 13%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
13 · 28 · 59PAD · draw · HOF
0–1
Likeliest HOF win · 18%
PADERBORN 13%DRAW 28%HOFFENHEIM 59%
Expected goals: PAD 0.56 · HOF 1.48
Goals
Over 1.5 goals62%
Over 2.5 goals34%
Over 3.5 goals15%
Both teams score34%
Double chance
PAD or draw41%
Draw or HOF87%
PAD or HOFno draw72%
Draw no bet
PADstake returned on a draw18%
HOF82%
Clean sheets
PAD clean sheet23%
HOF clean sheet57%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| PAD↓ HOF→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
3–1 · 0.6%
A PAD win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 4 meetings since 2014/15
PAD 02 drawn2 HOF
2019/20Paderborn1–1Hoffenheim2020-05-23
2019/20Hoffenheim3–0Paderborn2019-11-01
2014/15Paderborn0–0Hoffenheim2015-03-21
2014/15Hoffenheim1–0Paderborn2014-10-25
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.