Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Paderborn vs Hamburger SV
Saturday 24 Oct, 14:30
37 · 30 · 33PAD · draw · HAM
1–0
Likeliest PAD win · 11%
PADERBORN 37%DRAW 30%HAMBURGER SV 33%
Expected goals: PAD 1.19 · HAM 1.12
Goals
Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Over 3.5 goals20%
Both teams score48%
Double chance
PAD or draw67%
Draw or HAM63%
PAD or HAMno draw70%
Draw no bet
PADstake returned on a draw53%
HAM48%
Clean sheets
PAD clean sheet33%
HAM clean sheet30%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| PAD↓ HAM→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are PAD goals, columns HAM. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 2 meetings since 2014/15
PAD 10 drawn1 HAM
2014/15Paderborn0–3Hamburger SV2015-02-04
2014/15Hamburger SV0–3Paderborn2014-08-30
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.