Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Paderborn vs Freiburg
Saturday 5 Sept, 13:30
31 · 26 · 43PAD · draw · FRE
1–2
Likeliest FRE win · 9%
PADERBORN 31%DRAW 26%FREIBURG 43%
Expected goals: PAD 1.36 · FRE 1.63
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
PAD or draw57%
Draw or FRE69%
PAD or FREno draw75%
Draw no bet
PADstake returned on a draw42%
FRE58%
Clean sheets
PAD clean sheet20%
FRE clean sheet26%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| PAD↓ FRE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are PAD goals, columns FRE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Paderborn — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 4 meetings since 2014/15
PAD 21 drawn1 FRE
2019/20Freiburg0–2Paderborn2020-01-25
2019/20Paderborn1–3Freiburg2019-08-24
2014/15Freiburg1–2Paderborn2015-05-02
2014/15Paderborn1–1Freiburg2014-12-06
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.