Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
Saturday 24 Oct, 14:30
58 · 22 · 20MAI · draw · WER
2–1
Likeliest MAI win · 10%
MAINZ 05 58%DRAW 22%WERDER BREMEN 20%
Expected goals: MAI 2.09 · WER 1.18
Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
MAI or draw80%
Draw or WER42%
MAI or WERno draw78%
Draw no bet
MAIstake returned on a draw74%
WER26%
Clean sheets
MAI clean sheet31%
WER clean sheet12%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MAI↓ WER→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
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| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MAI goals, columns WER. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
MAI 75 drawn10 WER
2025/26Werder Bremen0–2Mainz 052026-03-15
2025/26Mainz 051–1Werder Bremen2025-11-01
2024/25Werder Bremen1–0Mainz 052025-01-31
2024/25Mainz 051–2Werder Bremen2024-09-15
2023/24Mainz 050–1Werder Bremen2024-02-03
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.