Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited
Mainz 05 vs Paderborn
Saturday 29 Aug, 13:30
Full time
0–0
chances 1.55 – 0.69 xG
✗ missed — we picked MAI; the draw we priced at 20%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
63 · 20 · 17MAI · draw · PAD
2–1
Likeliest MAI win · 10%
MAINZ 05 63%DRAW 20%PADERBORN 17%
Expected goals: MAI 2.29 · PAD 1.11
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
MAI or draw83%
Draw or PAD37%
MAI or PADno draw80%
Draw no bet
MAIstake returned on a draw79%
PAD21%
Clean sheets
MAI clean sheet33%
PAD clean sheet10%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MAI↓ PAD→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
0–0 · 3.8%
A draw. 0 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 4 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Paderborn — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 4 meetings since 2014/15
MAI 31 drawn0 PAD
2019/20Mainz 052–0Paderborn2020-02-29
2019/20Paderborn1–2Mainz 052019-10-05
2014/15Mainz 055–0Paderborn2015-01-31
2014/15Paderborn2–2Mainz 052014-08-24
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.