Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 7)
Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday 12 Sept, 14:30
Full time
1–3
chances 2.24 – 2.16 xG
✗ missed — we picked MAI; the EIN win we priced at 26%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 7 assessments
51 · 23 · 26MAI · draw · EIN
2–1
Likeliest MAI win · 9%
MAINZ 05 51%DRAW 23%EINTRACHT FRANKFURT 26%
Expected goals: MAI 2.01 · EIN 1.42
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
MAI or draw74%
Draw or EIN49%
MAI or EINno draw77%
Draw no bet
MAIstake returned on a draw66%
EIN34%
Clean sheets
MAI clean sheet24%
EIN clean sheet13%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MAI↓ EIN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
1–3 · 3.1%
A EIN win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 3 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
MAI 88 drawn8 EIN
2025/26Mainz 052–1Eintracht Frankfurt2026-03-22
2025/26Eintracht Frankfurt1–0Mainz 052025-11-09
2024/25Mainz 051–1Eintracht Frankfurt2025-05-04
2024/25Eintracht Frankfurt1–3Mainz 052024-12-21
2023/24Eintracht Frankfurt1–0Mainz 052024-01-26
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.