Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)
Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday 12 Sept, 13:30
48 · 23 · 28MAI · draw · EIN
2–1
Likeliest MAI win · 9%
MAINZ 05 48%DRAW 23%EINTRACHT FRANKFURT 28%
Expected goals: MAI 1.92 · EIN 1.45
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score66%
Double chance
MAI or draw72%
Draw or EIN52%
MAI or EINno draw77%
Draw no bet
MAIstake returned on a draw63%
EIN37%
Clean sheets
MAI clean sheet24%
EIN clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MAI↓ EIN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MAI goals, columns EIN. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
MAI 88 drawn8 EIN
2025/26Mainz 052–1Eintracht Frankfurt2026-03-22
2025/26Eintracht Frankfurt1–0Mainz 052025-11-09
2024/25Mainz 051–1Eintracht Frankfurt2025-05-04
2024/25Eintracht Frankfurt1–3Mainz 052024-12-21
2023/24Eintracht Frankfurt1–0Mainz 052024-01-26
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.