Bundesliga · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Mainz 05 vs Leverkusen
Saturday 10 Oct, 13:30
34 · 24 · 42MAI · draw · B04
1–2
Likeliest B04 win · 9%
MAINZ 05 34%DRAW 24%LEVERKUSEN 42%
Expected goals: MAI 1.62 · B04 1.83
Goals
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Over 3.5 goals45%
Both teams score68%
Double chance
MAI or draw58%
Draw or B0466%
MAI or B04no draw76%
Draw no bet
MAIstake returned on a draw44%
B0456%
Clean sheets
MAI clean sheet16%
B04 clean sheet20%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| MAI↓ B04→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are MAI goals, columns B04. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.
Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
MAI 54 drawn15 B04
2025/26Leverkusen1–1Mainz 052026-02-28
2025/26Mainz 053–4Leverkusen2025-10-18
2024/25Mainz 052–2Leverkusen2025-05-17
2024/25Leverkusen1–0Mainz 052025-01-14
2023/24Leverkusen2–1Mainz 052024-02-23
Match-level assessment. Scorer projections for this round are on the matchday board. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.